### Top 10 Socarxiv Papers Today

##### #1. Investment Capacity and the Electoral Marketplace: Evidence from Brazil
###### Victor Araújo, Maurício Izumi, Fernando Limongi, Umberto Mignozzetti
The importance of money in elections is a hallmark of contemporary democracies. In this paper, we study how investment capacity, defined as the resources remaining after the municipality perform the mandatory expenditures, influences elections in Brazil. We theorize that when a politician wins the election, this generates commitment problems in low investment capacity municipalities, as new mayors are unable to reward the firms that contributed to their campaigns. We test these claims by considering a close-elections regression discontinuity design coupled with heterogeneous quantile effects for Brazilian municipalities between 2000 and 2012. We find that incumbent mayors in towns with low investment capacity receive less campaign donation afterward and are more disadvantaged in their reelection contests. The results are robust to design variations and changes in party labels or mayoral characteristics. Our findings have implications for the influence of money on politics in democratic countries.
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socarxivpapers: #SocArXiv: Investment Capacity and the Electoral Marketplace: Evidence from Brazil https://t.co/YEhWTm38Dz
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##### #2. Do trust and legitimacy ‘arrive on foot’ and 'leave on horseback’? A longitudinal test of the asymmetry thesis of police-citizen contact
###### Thiago Rodrigues Oliveira, Jonathan Jackson, Ben Bradford, Kristina Murphy
Are trust and legitimacy hard to win and easy to lose? In this paper, we revisit the relationship between police-citizen encounters and attitudes towards the police and test the asymmetry thesis using panel data. Despite some evidence from cross-sectional studies indicating that attitudes ‘arrive on foot’ but ‘leave on horseback’, we suggest otherwise based on a longitudinal test comparing changes in trustworthiness and legitimacy. Drawing on data from a two-wave panel study of a nationally representative sample of Australian citizens, we measured (a) police-citizen encounters between waves 1 and 2, (b) satisfaction with process and outcome during those encounters, (c) respondents’ trust in police fairness and effectiveness, and (d) duty to obey the police (legitimacy). Analysis is carried out using autoregressive structural equation modeling. Results indicate slight asymmetry for trust in police effectiveness, strong symmetry for trust in police fairness, and strong asymmetry – in the opposite direction – for duty to obey. In a...
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socarxivpapers: #SocArXiv: Do trust and legitimacy 'arrive on foot' and 'leave on horseback'? A longitudinal test of the asymmetry thesis of police-citizen contact https://t.co/uA4VGf9SrY
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##### #3. How strong are soccer teams? The Host Paradox and other counterintuitive properties of the FIFA ranking.
###### Marek Kaminski
FIFA's ranking of national soccer teams is plagued with paradoxes. One surprising paradox is a dramatic underrating of the hosts of main tournaments. The hosts, who are absent from the preliminaries, for a long time, play only friendlies that award few points. Three models estimate the magnitude of the resulting “Host Effect” at 14.1-16.7 positions. Such an estimate goes against the intuition that a large investment in hosting a tournament should result in the improvement of the host team’s standing. Host’s low ranking decreases the interest in the tournament and may result in a major loss of advertisement revenue.
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socarxivpapers: #SocArXiv: How strong are soccer teams? The Host Paradox and other counterintuitive properties of the FIFA ranking. https://t.co/2IW5CQFxc5
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##### #4. Electoral Systems, Competition, and Incentives for Corruption
###### Umberto Mignozzetti
What is the effect of electoral rules on political corruption? While the influence of electoral systems on accountability and representation has been widely studied, the link between electoral systems and corruption remains sparse. This paper develops a model for the interplay between corruption and electoral rules, considering the incentives for challengers to expose the corruption undertaken by the incumbents. I identify two major components: first, rules that increase competition create incentives for freeriding, as challengers would prefer that other challengers pay the cost of exposure. Second, larger district sizes create coordination problems, as the same incumbent may be overexposed, while others were not exposed at all. These characteristics make a mix of high competitiveness and PR the worst system regarding incentives for corruption. I show that these predictions hold empirically using quasi-experimental data from Brazilian municipalities. This study has implications for the design of electoral institutions.
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socarxivpapers: #SocArXiv: Electoral Systems, Competition, and Incentives for Corruption https://t.co/tXtb9iLUA6
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##### #5. Bilateral Defaultable Financial Derivatives Pricing and Credit Valuation Adjustment
###### Tim Xiao
The one-side defaultable financial derivatives valuation problems have been studied extensively, but the valuation of bilateral derivatives with asymmetric credit qualities is still lacking convincing mechanism. This paper presents an analytical model for valuing derivatives subject to default by both counterparties. The default-free interest rates are modeled by the Market Models, while the default time is modeled by the reduced-form model as the first jump of a time-inhomogeneous Poisson process. All quantities modeled are market-observable. The closed-form solution gives us a better understanding of the impact of the credit asymmetry on swap value, credit value adjustment, swap rate and swap spread.
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socarxivpapers: #SocArXiv: Bilateral Defaultable Financial Derivatives Pricing and Credit Valuation Adjustment https://t.co/Acne0tEa7C
MrMeritology: RT @socarxivpapers: #SocArXiv: Bilateral Defaultable Financial Derivatives Pricing and Credit Valuation Adjustment https://t.co/Acne0tEa7C
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##### #6. A Co-authorship Network Analysis of National and International Growth in Prehistoric Archaeology, Italy (1875-2000): Combining Bibliometric and Qualitative Data in the History of Science
###### Sébastien Plutniak
This paper examines the national and international growth of prehistoric archaeology in Italy from 1875 to 2000. A bibliometric approach is proposed for a case study of a scientific discipline, language and period that are poorly represented in current bibliographic databases. These constraints led to the generation of a data set with articles from 5 journals (2842 articles and 1221 unique authors). Publication language and author nationalities were manually included in the data set. Journal internationality measures and coauthorship network analyses showed: 1) that internationalisation was not the most striking change over the study period: it was one of a number of features that journal editors addressed in their own way; 2) results confirm a change in the social organisation of scientific production in archaeology, with the emergence of co-authorship and reflect the differentiation of local research trends. This is discussed with reference to previous work on the history of prehistoric archaeology.
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socarxivpapers: #SocArXiv: A Co-authorship Network Analysis of National and International Growth in Prehistoric Archaeology, Italy (1875-2000): Combining Bibliometric and Qualitative Data in the History of Science https://t.co/ZJmMKPClAC
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##### #7. Estimating the Economic Impact of Increases in the Minimum Wage
###### Kory Alan Fenstemacher, Jared Harrison Fisher, Zerina Hadzalic, Brenda Hillebrandt
Florida’s latest Minimum Wage Initiative (Initiative #18-01) is highly likely to appear on November’s voting ballot. This amendment proposes raising the current minimum wage of $8.46 to$10.00 per hour beginning September 30th, 2021. Each year following the initial increase, the minimum wage would increase another $1.00 per hour until it reaches the goal of$15.00 per hour by the year 2026, which is marked by the dotted red line in Figure 1. Based on this information, the Florida Legislature has tasked AERG with a multi-stage economic analysis that involves estimating employment effects, as well as tax revenue and social services expenditures.
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socarxivpapers: #SocArXiv: Estimating the Economic Impact of Increases in the Minimum Wage https://t.co/XIdxLFxJ6o
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##### #8. Women's experience of child death over the life course: A global demographic perspective
###### Diego Alburez-Gutierrez, Martin Kolk, Emilio Zagheni
Recent population change has seen increases in life expectancy, reductions in family size, and postponement of fertility to older ages. We analyze the effect of these dynamics on the experience of child death over the life course for the 1950-1999 annual birth cohorts of women around the world. The paper draws on age-specific fertility and mortality rates from the UN World Population Prospects 2019 (estimates and projections) to assess trends in the frequency and timing of child death using formal demographic methods. We discuss the variation in woman's exposure to offspring mortality according to the demographic regimes prevailing in different world regions. Our analyses predict a global reduction in the overall frequency of child death over a woman's life course. We expect the largest improvements in regions of the Global South where child death is still common for women. In spite of persisting regional inequalities, we show evidence of a global convergence towards a future where the death of a child will become ever more...
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socarxivpapers: #SocArXiv: Women's experience of child death over the life course: A global demographic perspective https://t.co/VSbExBcTgS
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##### #9. Is an archaeological contribution to the theory of social science possible? Archaeological data and concepts in the dispute between Jean-Claude Gardin and Jean-Claude Passeron
###### Sébastien Plutniak
The issue of the definition and position of archaeology as a discipline is examined in relation to the dispute which took place from 1980 to 2009 between the archaeologist Jean-Claude Gardin and the sociologist Jean-Claude Passeron. This case study enables us to explore the actual conceptual relationships between archaeology and the other sciences (as opposed to those wished for or prescribed). The contrasts between the positions declared by the two researchers and the rooting of their arguments in their disciplines are examined: where the sociologist makes use of his philosophical training, the archaeologist relies mainly on his work on semiology and informatics. Archaeology ultimately plays a minor role in the arguments proposed. This dispute therefore cannot be considered as evidence for the movement of concepts between archaeology and the social sciences. A blind spot in the debate, relating to the ontological specificities of archaeological objects, nevertheless presents itself as a possible way of implementing this movement.
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socarxivpapers: #SocArXiv: Is an archaeological contribution to the theory of social science possible? Archaeological data and concepts in the dispute between Jean-Claude Gardin and Jean-Claude Passeron https://t.co/huClJgINvQ
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##### #10. Is Free Speech in Danger on University Campus? Evidence from a Most Likely Case
###### Matthias Revers, Richard Traunmüller
While universities play a key role in questions of free speech and political viewpoint diversity, they are often associated with the opposite of a free exchange of ideas: a proliferation of restrictive campus speech codes, violent protests against controversial speakers, and even the firing of inconvenient professors. For some observers these trends on university campuses are a clear indicator of the dire future for freedom of speech. Others view these incidents as scandalized singular events and regard the campus intolerance as a mere myth. We take an empirical look at some of the claims in the debate and present original survey evidence from a most likely case: the leftist social science studentship at the University of Frankfurt. Our results show that taking offense is a common experience and that a sizable share of students is in favour of restricting free speech on campus. We also find evidence for conformity pressures on campus and that both, the desire to restrict speech and the reluctance to speak openly differ...
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socarxivpapers: #SocArXiv: Is Free Speech in Danger on University Campus? Evidence from a Most Likely Case https://t.co/ajDxHTuTVx
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